NRL Round 2
My Game Handicaps | Market
-11.5
-12.5 Broncos v Eels | 47.5
-1.5
-1.5 Warriors v Raiders | 46.5
-3.5
-2.5 Roosters v Rabbits | 49.5
-4.5
-4.5 Tigers v Cowboys | 51.5
+9.5
+7.5 Dragons v Storm | 47.5
-3.5
-7.5 Panthers v Sharks | 42.5
-2.5
-4.5 Eagles v Knights | 49.5
-12.5
-9.5 Dolphins v Titans | 55.5
My Bets
3u Sharks +8.5 $1.90
Game is in Bathurst, I have both rated potential top 4 teams, at a near neutral ground at best I am 4 between them
3u Knights +4.5
Eagles smell, got run over second half when Raiders finally got some ball and went through the front door, now without Taukeiaho up front. Knights buoyed off first up win can challenge here, 4.5 too wide for me
4u Dolphins -9.5 $1.90 BB
Taking Dolphins on trust to respond here, do get 2 very important key ins, have the on paper potential to be a top 6 if not top 8 side playing the team most likely to run last who conceded 50 last week and have further injury outs
1u Same game multi any time try Roger Tuivasa-Sheck x Xavier Savage (Warriors-Raiders) $3.50
1u Any time try Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) $3.90
3u Titans most losses $4.00
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Staking notes at the base of this message thread
My Line Picks
+ Eels
- Warriors
- Roosters
- Tigers
- Storm
+ Sharks
+ Knights
- Dolphins
Game Tips
Broncos by 10
Warriors by 4
Roosters by 2
Tigers by 8
Storm by 10
Panthers by 2
Knights by 6
Dolphins by 12
Game Notes
Please note there are also individual message posts for each game that include the game notes plus Game Preview Sheet plus data market analysis sheet
Broncos v Eels
The Broncos have looked poor, unimpressive if not for the most part disinterested in both the Hull KR and then round 1 Panthers loss. Major error counts and leaky defensive offering have led to being a long way off the pace, and last week vs Panthers never really in the game. We’d expect at home they should turn up.. Eels just horrible last week, opened the game scores yet all downhill quickly thereafter and looked to have some significant defensive issues on their left edge. Off such a big loss I do expect a response, and they have won 4 of their last 5 head to head at the ground. 12.5 between them looks wide, 51.5 points looks high. Broncos
Warriors v Raiders
I did like the Warriors chances last week first up at home vs a slow starting Roosters, they started strongly and for the most part maintained control. Still with 3 key player outs, but again advantaged playing at home. Raiders have back to back travel but a positive recent record here, and have won the last 3 head to head. They are off a positive second half last week when they finally got some ball. Small lean to the home side but looks a quality close contest, wasn’t convinced this game had as high a total in it (46.5) and certainly their recent history has been for lower tighter scoring game outcomes. Warriors
Roosters v Rabbits
Classic contest and highlight match up for Friday night. Roosters typical clunky round 1 offering last week and somewhat surprising that they’d leak 42 points, I’m sure they will have been stung by that and won’t need a great deal of motivation vs their arch rival. Rabbits looked strong last week in whacking the Dolphins, Murray, Walker and Mitchell outstanding, now have a further injury out and change at #7. Small knock conceding 30, but they will be buoyed off a positive first up win. Another that looks close, small lean to the Roosters to respond.
Tigers v Cowboys
Early pm Saturday Leichhardt game between these two, what could possibly go wrong.. looks points galore (again) as these two always seem to turn the ball shift and attack on. Tigers first up, trial form means little but they have looked positive and up and about. Cowboys had their chances in Vegas but overall disappointing, too many errors and crash ball attack, they have had an extended break to rework their game and find an opening win. Has been a strong push for the Tigers this week, I like them here at home. Tigers
Dragons v Storm
The Dragons overall effort and defence was good first up, but where do their points come from? Against the Bulldogs we saw very little creativity or line break, and we’d expect against the Storm a similar tough defensive offering difficult to crack. Storm ‘s spine looked super last week albeit against a weak defensive offering, this looks far tougher and they have lost their last 3 at the ground. Expect some desperation from the home side, but the visitors good enough to get the result.
Panthers v Sharks
@ Bathurst Surprised the market had this as wide as they do. Both come off positive wins last week, but both also against questionable / weak opponent offerings. I have these two teams marked as potential top 4 contenders, so while at an away from Sydney venue I hardly see it as a significant advantage to the Panthers nor do I see it as this lopsided. Panthers did have plenty of errors in them last week, both offer strong line ups, and a nice physical contest through the middle. Good quality contest, Panthers might just get home but do expect the Sharks aim up.
3u Sharks +8.5 $1.90
Game is in Bathurst, I have both rated potential top 4 teams, at a near neutral ground at best I am 4 between them
Eagles v Knights
The key question on the Eagles into this season was the forward middle strength and depth and if this was to be exposed longer term as their obvious weakness. Once the Raiders got a share of the ball and worked through the middle they found plenty of joy last week, and the Eagles now lose Taukeiaho up front with injury. Under sustained physical pressure do they have the goods? Knights will be buoyed off their first up win, the attack looked a lot better and Mooney looks an excellent signing. Though the 4.5 between them looked wide, think the Knights can win straight out.
3u Knights +4.5
Eagles smell, got run over second half when Raiders finally got some ball and went through the front door, now without Taukeiaho up front. Knights buoyed off first up win can challenge here, 4.5 too wide for me
Dolphins v Titans
Dolphins very disappointing last week, I expect in weeks to come they will improve significantly, Plath is a big in, they remain at home and I’m sure Wolfe has been all over them this week looking for significant improvement. Titans need to respond, thumped by a big margin last week, they can bob up and play this ground well at times, but without Campbell this looks an ask. Dolphins
4u Dolphins -9.5 $1.90 BB
Taking Dolphins on trust to respond here, do get 2 very important key ins, have the on paper potential to be a top 6 if not top 8 side playing the team most likely to run last who conceded 50 last week and have further injury outs
Staking
Our likely weekly outlay is 6 to 10 units, with the recommended units bet indicated next to each bet in the bet list. The base bet is 1 to max 5 units (and this is also a reflection of confidence.
Everyone chooses to bet in different bet sizes, from differing betting banks (the personal funds they put aside for betting). Some will bet $20 per bet, some $200 per bet. So as to keep things simple and clear for everyone to follow we then talk in bet units. Our advice is to decide what size betting unit is likely to work for you and call this your betting unit, remembering that you may have approx. 5 to 10 units of recommended outlay per week per sport and that you also run the risk of losing.
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